UK Climate Projections

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (opens in a new window), which is funded by the Government, has used climate models to try to predict the effects warming will have in the UK. The latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provide information on how the UK's climate is likely to respond to levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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The severity of impacts in the future will depend on the amounts of greenhouse gases which have been emitted in the last 30 to 40 years, and on the amounts we are emitting now.

UKCP09 projections look at the likely impacts of climate change in three-30 year time slices called the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

Climate projections for each of these decades have been completed for three possible emissions scenarios − low, medium and high.

These scenarios take into account uncertainties associated with future trends and behaviours, including technological progress and population.

See the UKCP09 (opens in a new window) website for further detail on the latest climate projections.

Some of the measured effects of climate change in the UK

• the growing season for plants in central England is now a month longer than it was in 1900

• summer heatwaves are occurring more frequently, and in winter there are fewer frosts

• compared with 50 years ago, we now get more rain, but on fewer days − so the falls are even heavier

• average sea level around the UK is now about 10cm higher than it was in 1900.

Droughts could become more common and flash flooding episodes could increase. As a result of an expected higher precipitation level in winter, river flooding could become more common than in the past. We list some of these potential effects, such as flooding in our Community Risk Registers (opens in a new window).

To find out more about making your home more resilient to the impacts of flooding, visit the flood prevention section of our website.