Risk Terminology

To better understand the "Risk" in any area, it is necessary to be aware of the various terms used and what they mean.

The Risk Assessment process used in Derbyshire is taken from the Statutory Guidance "Emergency Preparedness" which supports the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.

Given below is a summary of useful definitions taken from this Guidance and other supporting documentation.

Risk - is defined as the product of the likelihood and impact of a given hazard or threat.

Hazard - for the purpose of this process describes the potential to cause harm by something "accidental or naturally occurring".

Threat - for the purpose of this process describes the potential to cause harm as a result of intentional malicious actions, and includes terrorism.

Impact - is a measure of the severity of the potential harm caused by the hazard or threat. In this Risk Assessment process the impacts on health, the economy, the environment and social impacts are considered.

Each impact is given a rating of 1 to 5, described as:

1 = Insignificant
2 = Minor
3 = Moderate
4 = Significant
5 = Catastrophic

Likelihood - is the probability of an incident related to a hazard or threat, occurring over the next five years. The likelihood is given a rating of 1 to 5, described as:

1 = Negligible
2 = Rare
3 = Unlikely
4 = Possible
5 = Probable

Further Information

Given below are more detailed tables and descriptions of the key risk terms taken from the Statutory Guidance. The full Guidance can be found on the UK Resilience (opens in a new window) web site.

Impact scoring scale - qualitative measures

Level	Descriptor	Categories of Impact	Description of Impact
1	Insignificant	Health	- Insignificant number of injuries or impact on health
		Social	- Insignificant number of persons displaced and insignificant personal support required - Insignificant disruption to community services, including transport services and infrastructure
		Economic	- Insignificant impact on local economy
		Environment	- Insignificant impact on environment
2	Minor	Health	- Small number of people affected, no fatalities, and small number of minor injuries with first aid treatment
		Social	- Minor damage to properties - Minor displacement of a small number of people for less than 24 hours and minor personal support required - Minor localised disruption to community services or infrastructure less than 24 hours
		Economic	- Negligible impact on local economy and cost easily absorbed
		Environment	- Minor impact on environment with no lasting effects
3	Moderate	Health	- Sufficient number of fatalities with some casualties requiring hospitalisation and medical treatment and activation of MAJAX, the automated intelligent alert notification system, procedures in one or more hospitals
		Social	- Damage that is confined to a specific location, or to a number of locations, but requires additional resources - Localised displacement of more than 100 people for 1-3 days - Localised disruption to infrastructure and community services
		Economic	- Limited impact on local economy with some short-term loss of production, with possible additional clean-up costs
		Environment	- Limited impact on environment with short-term or long-term effects
4	Significant	Health	- Significant number of people in affected area impacted with multiple fatalities, multiple serious or extensive injuries, significant hospitalisation and activation of MAJAX procedures across a number of hospitals
		Social	- Significant damage that requires support for local responders with external resources - 100 to 500 people in danger and displaced for longer than 1 week. Local responders require external resources to deliver personal support - Significant impact on possible breakdown of delivery of some local community services
		Economic	- Significant impact on local economy with medium-term loss of production - Significant extra clean-up and recovery costs
		Environment	- Significant impact on environment with medium to long-term effects
5	Catastrophic	Health	- Very large numbers of people in affected area(s) impacted with significant numbers of fatalities, large number of people requiring hospitalisation with serious injuries with longer-term effects
		Social	- Extensive damage to properties and built environment in affected area requiring major demolition - General and widespread displacement of more than 500 people for prolonged duration and extensive personal support required - Serious damage to infrastructure causing significant disruption to, or loss of, key services for prolonged period. Community unable to function without significant support
		Economic	- Serious impact on local and regional economy with some long-term, potentially permanent, loss of production with some structural change - Extensive clean-up and recovery costs
		Environment	- Serious long-term impact on environment and/or permanent damage

NB: The Derbyshire Risk Assessment Working Group (RAWG) further developed the above impact scales with relevant local quantative measures, to better evaluate the impacts.

Explanation of categories of impact

Category	Explanation
Health	Encompassing direct health impacts (numbers of people affected, fatalities, injuries, human illness or injury health damage) and indirect health impacts that arise because of strain on the health service
Social	Encompassing the social consequences of an event, including availability of social welfare provision; disruption of facilities for transport; damage to property; disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel; disruption of an electronic or other system of communication; homelessness, evacuation and avoidance behaviour; and public disorder due to anger, fear and/or lack of trust in the authorities
Economic	Encompassing the net economic cost, including both direct (eg loss of goods, buildings, infrastructure) and indirect (eg loss of business, increased demand for public services) costs
Environment	Encompassing contamination or pollution of land, water or air with harmful biological/chemical/radioactive matter or oil, flooding or disruption or destruction of plant or animal life

Likelihood scoring scale

Level	Descriptor	Likelihood over 5 years	Likelihood over 5 years
1	Negligible	>0.005%	>1 in 20,000 chance
2	Rare	>0.05%	>1 in 2,000 chance
3	Unlikely	>0.5%	>1 in 200 chance
4	Possible	>5%	>1 in 20 chance
5	Probable	>50%	>1 in 2 chance

Definitions of Risk Ratings

Very High (VH) Risk - these are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority. This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of (multi-agency) planning, exercising and training for these hazards should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency. Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.

High (H) Risk - these risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as "very high". Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency.

Medium (M) Risk - these risks are less significant but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term. These risks should be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed and consideration given to their being managed under generic emergency planning arrangements.

Low (L) Risk - these risks are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal or generic planning arrangements and require minimal monitoring and control unless subsequent risk assessments show a substantial change, prompting a move to another risk category.

Priority for Action

The statutory Guidance, Emergency Preparedness, states that "the Local Resilience Forum should prioritise risk reduction measures in accordance with the level of risk and the gaps in the capabilities required to respond to those risks". The "priority for action" or "risk priority" rating as recommended in the additional Guidance on local risk assessment, issued on 22 September 2005 should be on a scale of 1-5 with 1 as the lowest priority and 5 as the highest.

Given below are the definitions (developed locally) of each "priority for action" rating, to be shown on the Community Risk Register:

1 = No risk treatment required currently but subject to ongoing risk assessment and periodic review.
2 = Limited risk treatment required. Confirm adequacy of existing generic emergency planning arrangements.
3 = Risk manageable within generic emergency plans. To be incorporated into generic awareness raising for all Category 1 responders.
4 = Further actions required, may include preparation of specific emergency plans or integration into existing protocols and training.
5 = High priority for action and preparation of specific emergency plans. Examine possibility of measures to reduce the overall level of risk.

NB: The Derbyshire Local Resilience Forum approved a "Risk Treatment Plan" in September 2006 related to our "Very High and High" risks.

This outlines our "Priorities for Action" for 2006/7 and also indicates the risk priority ratings. Links to the Risk Treatment Plan can be found on the Community Risk Registers (opens in a new window).

If you want to Know More

Should you have any questions about the risk assessment process or the continuing work of the Risk Assessment Working Group:

Contact: Nick Elliott
Tel: 01629 580000 ext 7361
email Nick Elliott